PERSPECTIVE: $1.7M in 22 Days – Inside Wayne’s Hottest Home Sale with Joe Charles

What does it take to sell a $1.7 million home in just 22 days in one of New Jersey’s most competitive markets? In this episode of The Pulse and Perspective, Pete D’Angelo sits down with Joe Charles, local real estate expert and rising voice in the North Jersey market, for a deep dive into the story behind 38 Birchwood—the highest home sale in Passaic County for June.

Joe breaks down the strategy behind soft-listing a home, design decisions that created warmth in a 4,200 sq. ft. luxury build, and the community-centered philosophy that made this new construction project stand out. We also discuss buyer psychology, market timing, and what could lie ahead for home prices and rates in Northern NJ.

🏡 Explore the project and Joe’s work:
 🔗 Joe Charles Website
📬 Newsletter Sign-Up
📝 Blog & Articles
📸 38 Birchwood Feature + Photos
📲 Instagram @joecharles_nj
▶️ YouTube Channel – Joe Charles the Realtor

If you're thinking about building, buying, or investing in North Jersey, this episode offers firsthand insight into what it takes to thrive in today’s evolving housing landscape.

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Peter D'Angelo | NMLS: 885309 | Branch Manager | Guaranteed Rate, Inc., NMLS 2611
Peter.DAngelo@Rate.com

*All information, topics, discussion is my own personal opinion and insight, not reflective of Guaranteed Rate, Inc. May contain market information for informational purposes only, not to be used as financial advice.

Transcript

Podcast_Interview_07.11.2025_JoeCharles

​[00:00:00] 

Pete: Okay, cool.

Joe: Yeah, man, good to see you. 

Pete: fully present in the moment.

Joe: look like you're in a rave right now. I wanna be, be where you are.

Pete: I got this new light so I can the button. It'll start pulsing and doing the whole rave thing. But yeah, no, this is the, uh, this is the setup here. I like what you got going on there too, with the newly finished basement

Joe: Yeah, man. Thanks, dude. It's, uh, I'm hiding. My body is hiding most of my kid's stuff right now, but, uh, but it is just everywhere, but it's okay.

Pete: That's great. So for those who don't know you just introduce yourself to everybody.

Joe: Uh, yeah. I'm Joe Charles. I'm a real estate agent in Northern New Jersey. Um, lived in northern New Jersey my whole life. Um, got into real estate about six years ago. Um, yeah, I'm in, I'm from Wayne, grew up in, in Nutley, live in Little Falls right now. And, um, yeah, just trying to, uh, help people out as [00:01:00] best I can and.

Joe: You know, working together with you has been great so far. I think we've got a really good team going on right now to really help, really help buyers out, um, you know, get that edge to get those properties they want. And especially in today's market, how crazy it is.

Pete: Yeah, absolutely. Uh, and, and likewise, it's awesome working with you, man, and uh, I was really excited to have you on the podcast so we could talk about. Well, you, your story coming into real estate a little bit, um, but mostly after you sent me the article that you wrote that was so awesome. Uh, bearing the lead a little bit.

Pete: But, you know, we want to talk a little bit more today, about 38 Birchwood, uh, new construction, which I think you mentioned to me you someone reached out from nj.com or something. It was like one of the highest sold homes in Passade County.

Joe: Yeah, north north jersey.com reached out to me and I thought the sale was pretty interesting, you know, for, for what it sold for. Um, you know, being a beautiful, it was absolutely stunning new construction house. And, um, I was gonna reach out to them to see if they wanted to copy my [00:02:00] article and maybe I could publish it.

Joe: And they called me and said, yeah, your house, this sale is the highest sold in the state county for June, so we wanna write, uh, write about it. So I, I sent them some pictures and sent them the article and it was really cool, man.

Pete: Awesome. Congratulations, That's great.

Joe: Yeah, that's really nice to like, uh, I mean, I didn't even think that would be the highest sold in the month, but I mean, here we are.

Pete: Yeah, all. I mean, for those listening, go ahead and check out. I think the listing photos are at least still up online, right? For people to check out. It is a gorgeous

Joe: Oh yeah. It's, it's, it's one of the nicest designed houses too. The builder I work with, he's, he's a, like a legit perfectionist when it comes to building the house. He does go the extra mile, uh, everything from the foundation waterproofing, like all the stuff that you don't look at and you don't see that.

Joe: You don't know what your builder's doing. This guy does the extra steps. So the house not only came out, you know, solid as a rock, uh, but uh, his architect [00:03:00] made such a, a, a great design, like a really nice floor plan. The house was 4,200 square foot of living, which is a really nice sized house, but it had a very connected feeling to it, and which I love 'cause, and I think a lot more people are looking for that now.

Joe: They don't just want these monstrous homes that are very disconnected. They still want that cozy feel. But to have the room too and the space.

Pete: Right. And normally that, that is part of the struggle, right? When are talking about the homes that are 3000 feet square feet and up, um, they do have a propensity to be a little bit expansive, right? And not having that cozy feel. So this home, you're, you're saying it was really well designed to that, right?

Joe: Yeah. Yeah. I wish I could show it to you, but it's sold now, so I don't have the keys anymore. But, um, but I actually did a really cool video about it, which should be coming out soon. Um, you know, just to, it was actually the video was intended to sell the thing and we sold it before it completed. I.

Joe: Which was also amazing. You know, I kind of, I call, I call, I call it soft listings. Um, [00:04:00] you know, if you kind of, it wasn't fully ready. Appliances weren't in some, some molding had to go in, you know, there was still some items, grass wasn't there. And, uh, but I was preparing it and, um, but I was, so I was allowing showings.

Joe: It was on the list, on the, on the, on the MLS, but a lot more renderings than actual photos and. You know, uh, reaching out to some people, agents, whatever. I kept having people come through, you know, unfortunately I kept telling people too, you know, not to get off topic, but I just kept saying, listen, this house is not gonna last.

Joe: If I put this on the market and stage it, it's gonna be a battle for this house. You could see how great it is and people didn't wanna listen. Uh, but one, one family did. They saw it three times and it brought an offer cash also. And, um, yeah. And they got it. So, so good for them. Good for my builder.

Pete: Yeah. That's awesome to get out, get it sold that quickly too. So what was the, from the moment that you soft listed it to when it sold, how long of a time was that?

Joe: Uh, was it maybe 22 days? Something like that. So, yeah, [00:05:00] it wasn't really that, it felt longer. It. I was, 'cause I was getting a lot of showings. I had to go to the house a lot and do all the showings in person. 'cause you know, you really want to, you know, point out things to people because sometimes people are very distracted and just like the surface level things.

Joe: So I wanted to be there and talk about the, you know, how the build went and, and all that kind of stuff and really touch all those points for those people and, um, you know, so it was, it was a lot of work just for that. But, um, yeah, sure enough, man, we ended up getting it and um, you know, we sold it, uh, for 1.7 million.

Pete: Whoa.

Joe: Is, you know, can't beat that.

Pete: hats off to you, man. That amazing. Congratulations again. And that, that market too, which this is luxury market we're talking about. Um, that's, that is amazing for that kind of speed. And also I'm thrilled for your clients that that bought it. 'cause like that's, you know, um. Listening and [00:06:00] following your advice obviously really helped them out here.

Pete: And it's unfortunate. Sometimes it's part of the noise where they're like, it's a bit of a strategy to people, oh no, create the urgency type of a thing. I mean, you, you, you're sharing the story that's. That's what's really special about this, that's what translated through with that article you wrote.

Pete: So could we rewind a little bit? I'd like to learn more, a little about, a bit about the, the process of like seeing the potential of this property. Could could you tell us a little bit more about like, what did it feel like and look like at the onset and then getting things kicked off?

Joe: Yeah, sure. So, um, so if you wanna see the photos, I think exclusively right now, the majority of the photos in the old photo is on my website. It's, uh, Joe Charles nj, like new jersey.com. Uh, just look for the article about 38, uh, Birchwood. Um, and I'll show, you could see the old photos of the house and what it became.

Joe: Uh, so my, this builder and I, I've been, we, we've been trying to work together for a [00:07:00] while and, um. Eventually, you know, he was, he was freed up and he was able to, you know, work on something big. And, uh, so I started looking and I love Wayne. Uh, you know, I'm from Wayne. Uh, I think, I think Wayne is, is such a nice area to live.

Joe: It's kind of like, I, I call this area like the heart of New Jersey too. The heart of Northern New Jersey at least. 'cause you have just see such easy access to New York City, to Morristown, um, you know, if you're traveling, you know, to Connecticut or something like all the major highways are here. So it's, it's, it's, it's a nice.

Joe: It's a nice place to be and Wayne's a very nice town, lakes and all that kind of stuff. So I found this house. It was, I mean, this house looked like it, it was eaten. It was, it was, it was a, it was a mess. You know, most of the roof was off the, um, the porch in the back had no walls. But, um, you know, there was no, no toilet, no, no appliances, nothing inside.

Joe: And, um, and, and people still wanted it though because the way this market is. Even a property like that is still in demand [00:08:00] and the guy listed it, right? I think it was listed for 3 99 and um, the biggest selling point to that house. And what I would tell people too, if you're looking to build a house, you really, lot size, I think is the most important thing because you get a lot of flexibility.

Joe: And this house was 100 by almost 200. So that's a massive, that, that, you know, in Northern New Jersey standards at least, like, you know, uh, you know, east of like, uh, Wayne, uh, that's, uh, that's a lot of property, that's a lot

Pete: Oh yeah.

Joe: Um, so, um, yeah, so we ended up getting it. We ended up beating out a few other people and, um, yeah, construction began and, um, oh, his original plan was to square off the house and work off of that house.

Joe: But because the lot was so great, we ended up pushing the house about 50 feet back, so it was a little more away from the street. Added a circular driveway and there was still a yard that was, uh, 100 by 100 feet, which is. Yeah, incredible, incredible to find that, especially with the new construction [00:09:00] house.

Pete: Absolutely. And in this area of New Jersey with that much space land. Uh, so when it came to the design of the home though, uh, I remember reading, there's a little bit of a story with that too. Did he model it after a local property? Was it.

Joe: Yeah. Oh yeah, so, right. And that, that's the other thing too. Like, I, I thought it was really important too, and, and, and he agreed. If you're gonna build a new construction house in a town, it should really match the town, right? You shouldn't, you don't want to build a spaceship in the middle of a, that, that's at least my opinion, you know, if people like, if you like contemporary, you know, go for it.

Joe: But I think the house had to, had to look like it belonged. And um, the best way to do that is you look at the other houses that are there. So we drove. Yeah, we drove, I drove around. He drove around, around, we, you know, we took pictures of a couple houses that we thought would pick, stand out and would work.

Joe: And we found one, uh, a couple blocks away. And, um, kudos to that, to that family. 'cause it was a gorgeous layout. And then, uh, we just modified it a little bit, [00:10:00] added a little, you know, added those three circular windows, if you remember, up in the attic. Which adds a little, like, a little nice kind of, um, you know, it adds a little something to the house

Pete: A little character to just one.

Joe: exactly. And, uh, but still the house looks like it belongs. I mean, you drive by it, you know, you look at it, you notice that it's a nice big house, but you're just like, man, you know, it's, it doesn't look out of sorts. It doesn't look like it doesn't belong there. So that was a big, that was really important to us.

Pete: that's great. I think that's brilliant too. Um, because you could build this monstrosity of a beautiful thing, but if it's not, not like anything else on the block, it's you're limiting your pool. Right. The people's is gonna has to be that Uh.

Joe: Exactly. And you don't wanna upset the neighbors in the town either. You know, you don't wanna be the builder that puts 'em some ugly or you know, just some outta sorts house, you know? Uh, so you know, it's about the neighbors too. I think it's really important that they appreciate the house because it's their neighborhood, you know?

Joe: So, [00:11:00] so,

Joe: uh 

Pete: effect for them, right? They have this beautiful new construction down the street that's gotta be helping their neighborhood and the values

Joe: Yeah, I'm sure they're all very happy to see what it sold for.

Pete: Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. You're doing good work for the whole community over

Joe: Yeah. Right. Yeah. Right.

Pete: great. That's great. Um, so talking more into the design now, so, um, the actual layout, was there any thoughtful consideration to, to accomplish what you mentioned earlier about that homey feel in a 4,000 square foot home?

Joe: Uh, you know, I, I have to give a lot of credit to the architect. Uh, a lot of it was his design, and it was, it was fantastic. I. But, um, the, the nice thing about the builder that I was mentioning, he, um, you know, he recognized a couple of things that as you're building, you start realizing, you know what, this doesn't really belong.

Joe: Uh, like for example, um, the pantry, he had a. The architect had a massive pantry and it was bumped out from the kitchen. And when, when it was framed out, [00:12:00] you know, the builder's like, you gotta come here and look at this. He's like, does this look like this? Makes sense. Should this be here? And we were both like, no, no, it's, it's, it's, it's taking away from the space of the kitchen.

Joe: This doesn't make sense. We, nobody needs a pantry this big. So we cut it in half, moved it into the hallway where the Butler pantry was, and it just. It just made so much more sense. 'cause now you had the kitchen and the living room as one big square room as instead of like this jetted out room. That was it.

Joe: It didn't make sense. Um, like another great idea he had, there was a closet upstairs when you walked up to the second floor. I. And he was just like, why is this closet here? This doesn't make sense. So he just removed it completely and instead that's where he put the toilet into the master and then did a half wall, and then added a linen closet, which wasn't in the primary already.

Joe: So, so he recognized these things that they needed to be added that just add so much more to the functionality of the house. There, there are things that people would want more than, you know, you know, people would want a bigger kitchen than a larger, a [00:13:00] larger pantry, for example. So. Um, so it was smart. It was smart on him to, to, to recognize that.

Pete: Yeah.

Pete: And it sounds like that was a collaborative effort too. So were you involved in those conversations a lot when there things that.

Joe: yeah, yeah. No, like, that's what I like about him too. He, you know, he takes, um, you know, he takes. What I, because I see a lot of houses too, you know, like most realtors do. Uh, I, I think I do have a little bit of a better eye when it comes to certain things. Um, just, I don't know, I just. I, I, I like that aspect of it a little more creativeness to, uh, understanding how things flow and work.

Joe: And so, yeah. Uh, he, he came up with that idea. Um, you know, I just kind of agreed with him. Um, I did tell him he should have added a bathroom into the, the, the bedroom that's next to the, the primary, uh, uh, bedroom. Because I was like, listen, anybody's moving in here. They gotta, they're probably gonna have a little baby.

Joe: They're gonna want a tub to wash their baby. Nobody's gonna wash you. Don't wanna wash your baby in your own [00:14:00] room bathroom every night. So let's replace that and turn that into a tub at least. So he did do that, which was nice. He didn't like that idea. He is like, everybody wants standup. I'm like, it's been a while since you had kids.

Joe: I have a 6-year-old. I'm like, I know they're gonna appreciate a tub.

Pete: Great point. That's a great

Joe: Yeah. So yeah, it's, it's little things like that that just add a little extra to the house. And because you, you always want that family that's gonna buy it in mind. Uh, not only, um, because it's gonna make them happier, but it is gonna make your, you're gonna sell it better, of course it's gonna be more sellable.

Joe: So, um, yeah. And that's why I, I, I like touring people. 'cause you point out things like that to people. 'cause a lot of times they'd be like, oh, in the tubs here, in cases where young your youngest is, and they go, oh yeah, that's a, that's a good idea.

Pete: Yeah.

Pete: going, so going into it from like a marketing perspective, that telling the story and, and these types of things, that sounds like it was kind of your primary mode of really. Selling this home to So you want, tell me a little bit more about the marketing strategy there. 'cause I think [00:15:00] it's brilliant taking this approach that's telling the whole story so people are invested in, in, this, in this property, you know.

Joe: Yeah, I mean, well first I had to get people in the door. Uh, that was a little tricky because when you don't have photos up and you have a house that's listed so high, uh, in a town where this is like, kind of like the upper end, um, and it's not in one of the lake communities, that was a, that was a little, a little bit to overcome.

Joe: But, uh, you know, I do reach out to people personally. I'll make phone calls, uh, reaching out to people. I reach out to all the agents I know in the area, I'll call them personally, just to get the word out. Say, Hey, listen, you should really come and see this house. Um, and then once that happens, you know, it's, it's on me.

Joe: I think because you're, you know, he's hiring me to help him sell his home, to make that effort. You know, walk those people through the home, point out features, point out what they could do. Uh, like for example, um, in the first floor bedroom, there's an office right next to it, which we would consider an [00:16:00] office, but some people might have family living with them.

Joe: So I said, Hey, listen, if you plan on having family members stay here. You could open up the wall in between the office and the bedroom and turn that into a living room for your extended. Now you could make it legitimately, uh, a, a nice, spacious second family, uh, or extended room for a family member, uh, with a full bath.

Joe: I had a walk-in closet. I. And then, and then, and the garage access is right there too. So I'm like, they could also have their own private way out. And if you wanted to, you could punch a hole out in the side of the house, make a door there. Uh, just so now that they have a door instead of going through the garage.

Joe: So it's things like that you kind of wanna, you have to open people's minds sometimes and, and give them some vision. 'cause not every house is perfect. Uh, for, for anyone. Um, it doesn't matter what the price point is, there's always gonna be something that somebody will look at it and say, well, I wish it had this.

Joe: And then I think it's my job to say, well, it act actually can have that. This is what you should do, and now it'll be that. And I, and like you watch the, the light bulb go, go off [00:17:00] and, uh, and like, oh yeah, oh, the wall could be.

Pete: yeah. yeah That's awesome. Super cool. Okay, well that goes to show why it's sold in 22 days.

Joe: Yeah, I mean,

Pete: care and, and that, that attention to detail for everybody.

Joe: yeah, man, hopefully, uh, you know, hopefully I contributed to that. And, um, but, uh, yeah, I think this house was perfect for these people. They've been looking for a long time, so I'm happy for them that they found something too, so, um, that they could call home. And I think I, I think everybody's happy in this, in this situation.

Pete: Can't get better than that.

Joe: Yeah, man.

Pete: great. That's great. So, alright, we talked about a lot of the good stuff. You got this beautiful home, sold in 22 days. Well talk about some of the challenges. Where, where were some of the challenges here in this process?

Joe: Uh, well, new construction, uh, big challenge is always work. You know, getting the town on board and getting your approvals done, [00:18:00] that's always a process. Um, being as. Uh, nice as can be with the town is always very helpful, uh, but also listening to their demands. I think that's super important. So if you are planning on building a house or even some of your contractors, I mean, it, it, it goes a long way to really, I.

Joe: Pay attention to the needs of the town. Try to show up as much as you can. Like, I was there twice a week, um, helping my guy out to like, Hey, are we missing anything? Do you need anything? And sure enough, you know, one outta three times I'd show up and they'd say, oh, you know what, you, you guys didn't have a signature on this, or, you know what, there was a form you missed and okay, no problem.

Joe: Take care of it same day. You know? And we got our, we got our approvals done in two months. Um, which is,

Joe: which

Joe: is,

Pete: great.

Joe: that's really fast. That's.

Joe: That's 

Pete: incredibly fast for those who don't have a reference for that. That is outstanding

Joe: Yeah, yeah, it was quick. So, so yeah. And then, you know, so I mean, the challenges, you know, with the build and everything, that wasn't on my side. I'm not a builder in, in, [00:19:00] in no way. Uh, but, you know, getting that whole process done, um, um, yeah, I mean that's really the, the, the gist of it. It took about a year to build, um, from, well, I would say from purchase.

Joe: To near completion. It was about a year, I think we, we bought, bought it in May, had a started demo, demoing the old house in August. And um, and then it was pretty much done by February, March. But, um, you know, things slowed down a little bit. He had other projects going on. We didn't have it sold yet. Plus we were waiting for the spring market if we were gonna launch it.

Joe: Truly successfully, you know, waiting for the spring where the grass is green and all that kind of stuff was the best time we were targeting to really like, um, you know, list it truly. Um, but, uh, thankfully wouldn't have to get, get to that point. So save some staging money too. That was nice.

Pete: absolutely. And I was gonna [00:20:00] ask about that, but the timing was the game plan always to. Get in for a spraying market. 'cause I know this, this spring had a couple hiccups in, in the market because of news things going the world and the economy. So

Joe: Yeah.

Pete: was that ever a factor for you in the builder, in the process and

Joe: Um, I, it, it did play a little bit. Yeah, because I mean, you do have to pivot a lot sometimes, you know, the market's not always what it is. Like if somebody wants to list a house in two months. Like showing them what the market looks like right now isn't gonna be helpful. You have to look at what the market is when you're listing.

Joe: So, uh, I think the market, when we took that, that hit in, um, March, I think it was, um, that certainly, uh, made us push up, uh, listing it early. Like we didn't really plan on listing it when we listed it. Uh, but because yeah, because the way the market moved a little bit. We, we, we were like, let's, let's just list it now and see what happens and get it out there to people and, and see, see if we [00:21:00] could catch someone.

Joe: And, um, you know, because we weren't sweating it because only because we knew the house was gonna work out so well when we listed it, you know, but we were just like, it, it just makes sense because we don't know where the market is going. So, uh, as many, as many people didn't really know a lot of volatility and uncertainty.

Joe: So, um, so that's what we did.

Pete: Yeah.

Pete: let's tell me more about that. Because that, I can't even imagine, I can't wrap my head around trying to price a home a year from now. You know, like getting sense, especially the way the past three years have been. 'cause you don't really have, at least from my opinion, you don't really have a reference point you in the state of New Jersey.

Pete: What was it like 10% cumulative annual growth rate on median home sale

Joe: Yeah.

Pete: for three years straight.

Joe: Yeah. So, yeah, it, it, it, it is

Pete: me more. How'd you do this?

Joe: Well, I mean, it's a lot of risk. I mean, really more on the builder's part and the, he, he was the builder and the, and this and the owner. So, I mean, there's a lot of risk involved [00:22:00] and I, I don't know if people appreciate that so much when it comes to the builders because, you know, some of their sale prices, what's cooked in is their risk too, you know?

Joe: Into the, those sale prices. So you have to kind of factor that in and, and they have to hope the market doesn't just tank on them, you know, halfway through the build, uh, you know, or, or would skyrockets, you know, in the middle and you didn't even get the foundation in yet. It's like there's nothing you could do.

Joe: Um, but, um, but the market's been healthy enough and consistent enough that, you know, it, it did make sense. To get it going. Um, the, the design, I, I think as I said too, we were gonna square off the house and maybe go around 3,500 square foot, but, uh, he decided he wanted something much bigger. And, um, so we actually left some wiggle room.

Joe: We could've went, we could've maxed it out, I think at 46 or 4,700 square feet, but we pulled it back a little bit, uh, which I think made sense. And, um, but yeah, uh, I mean, going back to the market. Um, you don't know really, [00:23:00] um, you know, as anyone. And, um, I know a lot of people have been out there waiting for, you know, better circumstances to happen and they still haven't, you know, you're still waiting for, people still think rates are gonna go down to 3% and that's when they're gonna buy.

Joe: I know you see that a lot and it's just like, yeah.

Pete: it is become less and less. But you're right, the conversation still happens from time to time. Now, I'm at the point where it shocks me when they say that, I'm like, oh, oh, no, no, no, no, no. You don't want that. Trust you don't

Joe: Know. Yeah, yeah, right. If that's happened, yeah. It's not a good situation.

Pete: Right. Yeah. I, I just, I just try to think, I shared with you before, it's like if 3% is the mortgage rate.

Pete: Your mortgage is gonna be the last thing on your mind, because that means on the, on the periphery, there's a mess happening. It's bad 'cause, uh, you know, pulling that lever in 2008, that that's a one and done situation. Having do that again is, that's tricky. And know how that would have long-term effects.

Pete: We still don't know the long-term effects of [00:24:00] 2008 at this point, but do know is that an artificially lower rate environment creates a stalemate in real estate.

Joe: Yeah. Yeah. It, it, yeah. It's wild, man. It's, you know what, and I don't really blame people because they lived through it and then they feel like they missed. It's like, I'll just hit the next one. And then I remember researching, um. That, uh, interest rates, the last time they hit three and a half percent in the last a hundred years was never,

Pete: Yeah.

Joe: except for the time it, it happened.

Pete: One time. The one time in 2008, that was the only time in American history.

Joe: yeah. Right. So it's like, yeah, that's, so if you look at it from that perspective, then they go, oh, yeah. But, um, we'll see what happens when the rates go down. I mean, I, I hope they actually do. Um, but, uh, I also don't think things are gonna get better on pricing, I think, in my

Joe: opinion 

Pete: I'm, I'm with you. I'm in the same boat. Tell me more about that. Where do you things are going from a pricing perspective?

Joe: [00:25:00] Um, I mean, I would love to see the Feds drop their rates then. I really think they should. We're at what, at least 2, 3, 2 0.4 inflation. And they've been wanting 2% forever and we're almost there and they're like, we're gonna sit and wait. Uh, that part I don't understand. Um.

Pete: I actually, I've just, I've gone full on, uh, my soapbox over the past two weeks talking about this, um, because I, I researched it and essentially the shelter component of inflation. both of the major inflation gauges is part of the reason why we're above 2%.

Joe: Yeah.

Pete: So, and then I think there was someone from the National Association of Realtors that I saw a post last month where they were like, we've reached a point where the fed's probably gonna have to lower their, their rate for us to see 2% inflation.

Pete: And I was just like, yes, thank

Joe: Yeah,

Pete: That's where we're at right now.

Joe: yeah. Right. And it's like, you know what, if you lower it and it gets bad, put it right back to where it was, you know?

Pete: Right. And what is bad? [00:26:00] What does bad

Joe: yeah. And define bad. Exactly. Define bad.

Pete: Right? Like

Joe: Bad for whom? Bad for who?

Pete: it not, what's the bad, who's it bad for? I'm much more interested in that. a hundred percent.

Joe: But to go back to like talking about like what's gonna happen if the rates go down for mortgage rates I'm talking about now, um, there is so much pent up demand from the buyer perspective that once, I mean, so if, if you look at the market, I wrote about this too in another article. Um, it was in November, if I remember right.

Joe: Last year the rates looked like they were gonna go below 6%, like it was trending that way. I'm sure you remember that.

Pete: January, 2024.

Joe: Yeah. And all of a sudden there was a spike in, in inventory and a spike in pending sales. And I was like, oh, here we go. Like, things are changing. And then the feds dropped their rate, uh, I think it was a quarter, I think it was 25 basis points at that time.

Joe: And it halted everything. And you could see, you could see the spike and then you could line it up with [00:27:00] when they, they dropped that their, their basis points. It, it just dropped Right, right back down.

Pete: Oh, you're talking about September 

Joe: I'm talking about

Joe: September. Yeah, it was September, November-ish.

Pete: because. August, July and August were amazing. Uh, the lowest rate environment that we saw. Other than the beginning of 24. beginning of 24, that was the first time, it was December of 23, inflation showed the best progress down that we've seen.

Pete: there was a blow of a trend. So everyone thought we're done. The fed's lower by a 200 basis points. have four and a half percent interest rates again, and then one bad inflation report in February, I think toppled it. But uh, then it got better in August. Everyone's expecting that rate cut, then problem was the, it's not even about what the actual fed rate is.

Pete: I'm, I can tell you right now, lower rates don't necessarily need to be created by the Fed. All that we need is that people are gonna expect lower rates, even if it's six months from now. You'll have lower rates now.

Joe: [00:28:00] Yeah, right.

Pete: Yeah. that's

Joe: re.

Pete: Yeah. Or, or even just it's, it's market speculation that's really driving it. Right? mortgage rates are attached to parts of the market, right? actually, I saw an infographic when I first got in the industry and it was this, it looked like a map and it was 15 different categories of things that affect interest rates. And like, some of them were like geopolitical things and like stuff you were like, what?

Pete: Yep, it does all these things have an effect on it? so. I think it's just gonna be a matter of what does the inflation in jobs look like? And then the fed's gonna make their decision on it. July. Right now, no one expects a fed rate cut, uh, but people are pricing in 50 50 chance

Joe: Oh.

Pete: That's where they're at.

Pete: 50 50 for September. If we see a cooler inflation report, um, for the next couple, then expect that to happen. [00:29:00] And the one of the problems in the summertime is that, um. In the market, algorithms are running everything. So interest get a little more volatile for the better or for worse, we get into July, August.

Pete: little data point that these algorithms are engineered for tips it, then all of them follow suit and then swings become big swings and then

Joe: Yeah. Right. Yeah. And it just, and it just a little bit that affects the algorithm. It

Pete: just, it could be a headline. computers are getting so much more, you know, sophisticated.

Joe: Yeah. And the, the, the scary thing is it depends what headline they're reading too. You know, like if, if it's an opinion piece and it's from some maniac who doesn't really know what's going on, and it, it throws that, pulls that data in, um, you know, it'll just, it'll ruin everything. Um, so that's a whole other topic, but,

Pete: totally. Oh

Joe: yeah.

Joe: But I mean, I, I just don't understand why they went from, what was it in 2023? They had all these high expectations of doing all these [00:30:00] cuts in 2024. 'cause they expected inflation to drop, drop and drop and it didn't really do any of that. And then they dropped, they cut it anyway towards the end of the year.

Joe: 'cause they promised like eight cuts or something and they, I think they only did three last year. Now, this year we're almost at 2%. We're at two three and then two four or something like that. And they're just like, yeah, we're gonna hang out and wait. It's like, here's the actual thing is happening now. Not the speculation thing.

Joe: The thing is

Pete: You're a hundred percent right.

Joe: And you don't wanna cut, why? You know, ah, you know, we're gonna see. So, and yeah. And then, and then, uh, going back to that, so like if the rates do go down, if mortgage rates go, go down, you have all this pumped up, pent up buyers that are sitting on the sidelines waiting for those better rates.

Joe: So things are more affordable. So they're, their dollar goes a lot further and buying a house. And then on top of that. You have sellers who are doing the same thing because there's a lot of sellers that don't wanna be in their homes anymore. You know, whatever the case is, they're outgrown it. Their kids are gone.

Joe: They wanna downsize, they wanna upsize, whatever that case is. There's a, [00:31:00] there's a lot of sellers I've spoken to that wanna sell, but then they just say, where am I gonna go? You know, for, for what I'm paying my mortgage, I'm gonna be paying so much more for probably just a little bit better, you know, a little bit more than what I want, and it's not worth it to them.

Joe: So those sellers will also become buyers. So all the buyers waiting are gonna come in. All the sellers that wanna sell are also going to be buyers. So what's that gonna do? The prices of homes. It's gonna, it's gonna make them pop up more until it's gonna take a while. Uh, I think that'll be a short term problem.

Joe: Or, you know, who knows, maybe a year or two out. I think we, we spoke about that before, but, um, it, it's gonna last a while until finally, you know, enough of the sales have happened and enough of the homes that have been listed get bought up and things kind of start slowing down a little bit more. But, um, you know that, that's gonna be crazy.

Joe: I don't, I don't know what's, what's gonna happen with that, but.

Pete: We got a taste of it. Like you said, we got taste of it. The last time. The rates were very [00:32:00] favorable, and that was not even, not even like a really meaningful drop in rates that approaching 6%.

Joe: Yeah. Right.

Pete: under, you know, um, so that's a chaos that we don't have a reference for.

Joe: Yeah.

Pete: And I also wonder if it's gonna be super chaotic.

Pete: I think a lot of it will depend on the cadence of the rates going down. If becomes something where rates gradually drop, that's probably gonna be the best thing for our market. To just the change. Some sellers will get off the fence, some sellers won't. Some buyers are gonna get back in. But I think the, you made a great point there too, because of the pent up demand.

Pete: Any buyers who even see that interest rates, like in my opinion, if they see interest rates are more favorable, they can. Buy the home that they desire for their budgeted monthly payment and whatnot. Don't wait, because like you said, your competition's going to double [00:33:00] when the rates are in a great position and going to wind up paying a premium to be competitive again.

Joe: Yeah. Right. Yeah. It's like when you think it's a good time to buy, so is everyone else.

Pete: Exactly. Exactly. And it's the, it's the, uh, time where other people are uncertain that you've gotta take advantage. that's normally leading up to the time,

Joe: Yeah, it's like, it's like a, it's like if you're talking about Bitcoin, right? When people wanna buy Bitcoin, they only wanna buy it when it's in the news and in the headlines and like, as they say, you know, the old, the old saying like, oh, even the doorman's talking about it, you know, it's like. If, if he's talking about it and he knows about it, then it's either time to pull out

Pete: Oh yeah.

Joe: or not buy, you know?

Joe: 'cause it's like, yeah. It's, it's, um, yeah. It's, it's funny how that, how that happens. It's like trying to time the market is like the worst thing to try to do. You know? I, and, and I think that's good advice for anybody. Look, if it's time to sell or it's time to buy and, and you could afford it. You, you should be doing it.

Joe: Like, [00:34:00] don't worry about timing the market and trying to find that perfect moment, because the perfect moment isn't really there. And um, you know, I remember somebody gave me really good advice about stocks and it, it is actually, it's actually pretty true where they say it's not really your timing in the market, it's your timing in the market, you know, so, um, and I think that's, that's solid, that's solid advice right there.

Joe: So.

Pete: totally. And, and the, the examples are there for us. I did video last, I wanna say about five months ago, and I was talking, it was a case study of someone that I helped actually, a, a family I was helping and I. They purchased the home and then they just a year later had to sell. And the amount of equity that they gained was insane.

Pete: they knew when they went to buy that house, they had to negotiate and they went up like I think it was five or $10,000, and it got them the home and that five or $10,000 a year before captured them like 35 to $40,000 more in equity. And then there was someone who commented on the video and he was like, [00:35:00] yeah, I got priced out.

Pete: I didn't want to increase my bid by $5,000. Now I have to pay. $25,000 over what the, that home is now worth to what I'm looking for. so you, you couldn't be, in my opinion. You're a spot on the money, you, you can't time the market. You can just be in it for the right amount time or however your time horizon should dictate to you, you type of risk you're taking.

Pete: But also I have this concept that if you're buying a house to live in, it's not like your real estate investor. You're You've decided to take your housing cost and make it something that you're building equity in, not an investment 'cause. you know, there is a return when you sell very likely historically, over any 30 year time period I think it is, right?

Pete: Or maybe it's, it may even be shorter than that, but over any 30 year time period, you don't see a decline in home values [00:36:00] other than the one big crash, right?

Joe: Yep. Yeah. Yeah. If anybody, you, you watching this? Just look at the trends of, of home prices in the last, since like 1980. I think it's like when they really started tracking it, I

Pete: they did.

Joe: you can see it is just, it's just up, you know, it's so, you know, you can't really go wrong. It's, it's home, it's property, it is, you know, there's only so much of it.

Joe: And, um, you know, especially if you wanna live in the area that you already live, you know, unless you wanna go, you know, out into some state where there, there. Starting to build out, you know, that's a different story, but here in Northern New Jersey, like it's not, this is not gonna change, uh,

Joe: the environment

Joe: here.

Joe: Um, so

Pete: Do you, do you find that it, it's a bit of a struggle sometimes managing the dissonance because a lot of the national mainstream news outlets are talking about, it's now I saw an article. Home values are going down because we are in an, we're an anomaly in the Northeast, Boston, Chicago, Denver. Those markets are all outliers.

Pete: Most of the rest of the [00:37:00] country home values are going down. And homes are being, listings are expiring much more commonly. Homes are not selling. Um, but we are in a market that's super desirable. So do you find that there's a dissonance sometimes? Or are people starting to get like worried that home values are gonna go down?

Pete: 'cause they see it on the news?

Joe: Oh, of course. Yeah, absolutely. And it makes sense too, 'cause a lot of people tend to read national news and not so much local news, but at least I, I mean, I would think, but they, it, it's, it's, it is hard to separate the two. Uh, I, I, I wrote a newsletter every week and I, I think, as you know, and I, in my newsletter, I actually have a note that says I com I decided to start comparing the US market to New Jersey.

Joe: And you could just see the vast. Difference in home pricing. And I, I have a note there that says New Jersey is not the country, just so really pointed out to people. It's not there. There, there's a map too you could pull up. Um, I just saw it the other day. I'll have to find it for you. And it's a map of the whole [00:38:00] United States.

Joe: And like light blue is like where homes are going down, let's say, and dark red is where values are going up and just around New Jersey. And New York is just, it's this huge red bubble, you know? And everywhere else is just like, not red, except maybe here and there. But I think even Californians are moving here, which is surprising.

Joe: We're getting West coasters. Somebody down the street from me just moved there. They just came back from Arizona. They're like, oh yeah, no, we came here. It's Arizona's a. We don't wanna be there anymore. I was like,

Pete: interesting. I was that the film industry is gonna start doing that

Joe: yeah, yeah, yeah. There's a couple, I think the major league baseball. They're, I know they're moving, I mean, they're still here.

Joe: They're, it's a caucus. I think they're gonna Elmwood Park. I think New Jersey's trying to get more into, uh, get more movies, movies filmed here. Um, so, um, yeah, I don't know, man, but, um,

Pete: if you think about it too, it's comparable,

Joe: yeah.

Pete: right? Like get seasons here. like New Jersey gets a [00:39:00] bad rap, but like it's really one of the best states in the country with respect to like, you get everything

Joe: close. You wanna go skiing, you wanna go skiing, you wanna go hiking, you wanna go camping, you wanna go fishing? You know, we have nature here. I know a lot of people laugh when I hear the Garden state 'cause they're flying into Newark

Pete: Newark.

Joe: And you know, you got Elizabeth and all the industrial stuff going on over there.

Joe: But, um, but no man, it's, there's a lot to do. Lots of farms and wineries and, you know, it.

Pete: and, yeah, shore points. Take your pick up and down the whole state. You, know, like desirable places to go for a day and you can get them. You can get there in very reasonable amount of time.

Joe: Mm-hmm.

Pete: but then again, like no, um, New Jersey sucks. We don't have enough room for other

Joe: Oh yeah. Yeah.

Pete: no, you don't wanna be here in Jersey.

Pete: It sucks. Uh, we are busting at the seams, man. [00:40:00] I mean, you live in, in Wayne and I'm over in Towa here. It's congestion city. It's, the summer's always a really nice time. like the pockets of traffic are random. But when, you know, there's. School's in session.

Joe: Yeah.

Pete: get really brutal.

Joe: Oh yeah. Especially when schools are in. Yeah. You know, it's funny too that New York Times wrote a, wrote a article about Little Falls and, um, and like everybody, everybody in the town was like, uh, how do we burn that? How did we delete that off of the internet? Because.

Pete: Oh gosh.

Joe: Yeah, because it's such a great town, you know, I probably shouldn't be saying this, cut this.

Joe: Don't, don't, don't, uh, don't save

Joe: this

Joe: But, uh, it, it is such a nice town and I love it. I actually love it here. Um, it's quiet. It's got every, you know, everything you, you could want. So, um, people are super, super nice. So, um, yeah. So

Pete: fascinating. I,

Joe: yeah, that's between,

Joe: that's 

Pete: between us then. my gosh. It's [00:41:00] wild.

Joe: So, yeah. Um, yeah, and I mean, yeah, the market's, the market. Um, you know, and, uh, you know, one thing I'll, I'll say too, since we're talking about new construction, um, we'll probably wrap this up, but, um, there, there's, there's some advice I would give a buyer too. Um, which I, I'll say to people, it's to each their own, whatever you want, that's fine.

Joe: But, um, you know, going back to timing in the market, um. When, uh, if you're a, if you're buying something, you have to know what market you're in too. I think that's very important. So we've been in a seller's market for four years. So you have to also recognize that as a buyer, you know, if you're buying gold or whatever, if if gold, or let's say you're buying comic books and like the new Marvel movie just came out, if you're gonna go buy comic books at that time, like, you know, it's not exactly the best move, you know, maybe you could buy it, but you gotta expect you're paying premium prices and not lower prices.

Joe: So the same thing goes for housing. Um, so we're in a seller's market, so they have more of the power. [00:42:00] So you can't expect a deal, especially on a nice house, uh, like a house that's well built, brand new, renovated, you know, it, it meets, checks, all of your boxes. Guess what? Your boxes are probably just like everybody else's boxes, which means it's even more in demand.

Joe: So you're gonna have to pay the premium. Stop trying to get a deal on these homes. Um, but the other thing I like to tell people that who are looking for. Fully renovated homes is, I, I like to tell 'em, look, if, if you buy a fully reno renovated home, that's fine, but you understand you gotta pay a premium.

Joe: It might take a little longer for you to get your, your, your equity back in that house. If you buy something that's maybe moving ready, but there's a bathroom that needs updating, maybe the basement's partially finished where you could do these things now, you could buy a house. At a better price. So your mortgage is your monthly mortgage that never changes is gonna be lower, right?

Joe: Um, so you're gonna save on that. Take the money you're saving from buying the premium house and start budgeting to do your updates, budgeting to do, turn it into the bathroom. You always wanted the [00:43:00] bedroom. You always wanted, you know, the, the finished basement look, my house, I, I bought a house with an unfinished basement and I just finished it and it's, I, I love it.

Joe: I did designed it exactly how I wanted it. And, you know, I. I love it. Nobody else would've did it the way I did it. I mean, my timing, you know, in the market just happened to be, when I was ready to buy a house, it was a good time, but still, like I gained so much equity by doing these things in this house. I have so much more in this house than if I bought a brand new home when I bought it. That that makes sense. So, uh, and then the other thing I like to tell people too, if you're looking for, for a fully renovated home, understand that in 10 years, your entire house is going to be out of date. So things will start falling apart all at the same time too. So just be careful with, with that. And you know, if, if that's what you want, that's what you want. But I, I like to bring that to people's attention. 'cause sometimes they go, oh wow, oh really? Oh, I didn't really think about it like that. I'm just thinking about the now.

Joe: I [00:44:00] was like, if you're gonna live here for 10, 20, 30 years, you should think about that a a little bit more, you know? Um, so I dunno, that's just, this is my thought on the, this is my whole thought on the buying process. So.

Pete: It's great advice and it, it goes to the creativity you gotta have, you know, you gotta have that vision in this and that's where you're gonna probably be the most successful, wouldn't you say?

Joe: Yeah. Right, exactly. And uh, and that's why you should, you know, work with a realtor like me.

Pete: Absolutely.

Joe: Just a little, little, little pitch there. But you know, I do like to do that with people. I'll say, Hey, look, you needed another bedroom. You wanted a bigger closet. Well, you know what, there's probably space between this room and that room.

Joe: This looks like dead space, especially like the older houses. Like you could easily open this up, turn this into a bigger closet, you could easily open this wall and do this and do that. And, um, you know, and like, I think that I like doing that. It actually. I like opening people's eyes to realize that, hey, you know what?

Joe: They could buy a house for a little less and just put a little bit more effort into it, and I [00:45:00] could connect them with, you know, with contractors and stuff like that too, that are professional, will get the job done right. And, um, I like to surround myself with good people, you know, to, you know, be the best resource i, I possibly can for people.

Joe: So, um, there, there's my, there's my pitch.

Pete: Beautiful. That's the best way to tag this out, man. That's Yeah, no, the primacy recency effect. Um, yeah. So, uh, what I'm gonna do is I want to put your email address, your contact info in the show notes description below. So if anyone's interested in reaching out to Joe, picking his brain, getting that local realtor expertise, Joe's amazing to work with.

Pete: I thoroughly enjoy working with him, and I know you will too. And, uh, there's also the article, I'm gonna drop the article in there. For Birchwood so that everyone can, can read that. And then, yeah. Do you have anything coming up that you wanna let people know about or, um, anything in part, any particular way you like getting, having people reach out to you?

Joe: Uh, [00:46:00] yeah, I mean a, anyway, email's fine. I know sometimes people don't like to pick up the phone initially, and it's awkward. Email me is fine. I'm, I'm pretty responsive. Uh, send me a text message to my phone. Uh, even if you just have questions, I. You know, I, I'm more than happy to give you an earful of information.

Joe: It's just because of how I am. I, I have a very technical back background and that's how my brain works. So I feel like I need to tell you as much as possible. Uh, I clean it up as much as I can, but I mean, I have no problems with even just answering questions, just being an advisor, because I know sometimes people are looking into the future too.

Joe: You know, I'm not expecting, you know, you're ready now. Let's talk. And, you know, I'm. Like, I care about that. Like, if, if it's a year, two years, whatever, down the road, you have thoughts, ideas, sometimes renovating your house is, is is the way to go. And, um, you know, and if you want advice on that, happy to tell you about that.

Joe: So, or, or work with you. So, uh, yeah, however you wanna reach out to me is fine. Um, you know, or even call you [00:47:00] and then you could

Pete: Yeah, call me up. Yeah. And then I'll, I'll hook you up uh, connect it with Joe and then also, uh, definitely, um, subscribe to Joe's newsletter. It's awesome. I read it every week. I really appreciate it because like you mentioned, most of the information we get is national news and to really get the look, uh, you do a great job of putting together the analysis of the markets, of the counties pending home sales, percent over list or un.

Pete: Awesome. Uh, super helpful. And your commentary's great too. Um, you know, for, for anyone who's even just kind of mildly interested in real estate, it's a really great, quick digestible. Friday morning, does it go out,

Joe: Every, every Thursday 

Pete: Thursday? Thursday

Joe: three 30. Yeah. Once a week. I don't spam. Uh, it's always current relevant information. I write, I always write up like a popular, like what's going on that's popular, like if the inflation report came out, or, you know, something's trending or popular. If there's nothing going on, I'll just talk about advice.

Joe: [00:48:00] Right? I think my last one, I, I give advice to buyers and sellers. So it's like two paragraphs, right? It's not, it's not a crazy. Um, and then, uh, yeah, and I give the report of all the Northern New Jersey counties what's going on, uh, with their, those markets individually, which I think is great to see the trends, you know, especially if you're thinking about selling, you know, in the next six months or something.

Joe: It's good to see how things are moving. And, um, yeah, and then I, I put a couple articles in there. I think nothing crazy, but just all relevant stuff, right?

Joe: It's 

Pete: You pull it all together in one spot. So if you wanna go adventure out, then here's a couple links and other articles and stuff to

Joe: Uh, you know, like everybody else, I'm not a big like reader. Like, oh, I'm gonna read this. I skip to the bold print like everyone else. Where's the bullet points?

Pete: Okay. Got the gist. Moving on. Yep, I hear you. Oh, great. Well, Joe, thank you so much for your time, man. Really appreciate this. I'm gonna have you back, I want people to know your story 'cause it's such a cool story too. You, you just alluded to it a little bit about your technical background, but, [00:49:00] we'll, we'll do this again and, uh, we would love to just exclusively just talk about your, your career and

Joe: We can talk about any topic. So.

Pete: Awesome. Cool beans. Thank you so much. Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll be talking to you soon.